Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a rally near the Kremlin. (Denis Tyrin/AP)

Russo-Ukraine Conflict
4/1/2022

A Brief History of Ukraine Ukraine:
A Nation of Tragedy, from Imperial Russia to the Soviet Union

Prior to WWI, the Austro-Hungarian Empire controlled an area known as Galicia (portions of present-day Ukraine and Poland). Galicia was a strategic military asset; it was rich in vital natural resources such as iron, salt, and fertile soil. During the war, Galicians faced political oppression from the Austro-Hungarian Empire, resulting in mass executions for perceived Russian approval. When Imperial Russia successfully occupied Eastern Galicia, anti-semitic pogroms commenced wreaking havoc on the region once again.

Due to the war, Imperial Russia fell to its knees; with a depleted military and crippled economy, it couldn't survive the economic devastation like the West. Poverty was widespread, and fringe political leaders like socialist Vladimir Lenin had risen to prominence.

Tsar Nicholas II resigned, and the Duma gave Georgy Lvov power as Prime Minister of the Russian Republic. Lvov advocated for social reforms, democracy, and widening civil liberties, but the far-left Marxists grew impatient by the hour. While serving as Prime Minister for just over three months, Lenin and Trotsky threatened to overthrow the Provisional Government, leading to the resignation of Lvov. Within less than a year, Lenin staged a coup d'etat, successfully destroying the Russian Republic. Lenin withdrew from WWI immediately.

Following the chaos in Russia, a segment of the nation decided to secede, naming itself Ukraine. Germany saw an opportunity for a land grab and took control of Ukraine fairly quickly, ultimately being ping-ponged back into possession of the newly established U.S.S.R. Ukraine was exhausted and demoralized from tiring war and endless cycles of new regime control.

Preceding the second world war, Vladimir Lenin passed away, and Joseph Stalin claimed the torch. Stalin invaded west-Poland in 1939. The Soviet Union had little support from their new western addition; members of the region were in battle against the red army just a few years prior. Throughout the 1930s, Stalin blacklisted many Ukrainian families, which prevented them from receiving food (growing their own food was theft from the state and punishable by death). The Soviet government confiscated all belongings, including anything edible, such as pets. From 1931 to 1934, at least 3.9 million Ukrainians died of starvation, and cannibalism became more prevalent. The 2022 Superbowl stadium has a capacity of ~100,000. Stalin's genocide killed 39x more people in 3 years than THIS CROWD. 

Hitler and Stalin kept their domestic enemies weak with forced starvation. 

In 1941, Adolf Hitler commanded German and Axis powers to initiate a surprise invasion of the U.S.S.R. Within months, much of the Soviet's western flank (present-day Ukraine) was under Nazi control. In solidarity with Ukrainians such as Stepan Bandera, a supporter of "ethnic and ideological purity," Nazi occupation remained strong. 1.5 Million Ukrainian Jews (including children) were left slaughtered in just four years. As World War II came to a close, the Soviet Union reclaimed Ukraine. For the next ~50 years, the U.S.S.R. controlled Ukraine.

Ukraine has suffered war and carnage throughout history for no fault of its own. Ukraine has plenty of potential with natural resources, and its citizenry cherishes freedom because of the history of oppression by authoritarian regimes.

By 1991, Economic devastation was widespread in the Soviet Union. Mikhail Gorbachev inherited a nation on life support. Gorbachev's most significant contribution to his constituents was the implementation of Glasnot, or free speech. Allowing transparency and free speech gave the citizens the authority to finally protest against the Soviet failures. On August 24th, 1991, Ukraine declared independence again, and Gorbachev resigned soon after.

The second president of Ukraine (1994-2005), Leonid Kuchma, enacted anti-free market policies, where the state invested in a select number of companies. Only a handful reaped the benefits, and costs increased for the Ukrainian people because of the lack of competition. The state prosecuted Kuchma's top political ally, who sought asylum in the United States, and was found guilty of laundering over $100,000,000. There are several instances where similar story plots describe the corruption of Ukrainian public officials.

In 2004, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych was on the path to the Ukrainian Presidency. Yanukovych was undeniably popular in the Donbas region (bordering Russia) and maintained friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He did not support Ukraine joining NATO: which Putin believed to be a smokescreen for western expansion to the border of Russia. His opponent was mysteriously poisoned during the race, leaving permanent facial damage. Neither candidate received enough votes to win the presidency. After the runoff election, Yanukovych won, but fierce opposition confronted him. Hundreds of thousands of protestors took to the streets to protest the outcome. One protest garnered upwards of half of a million protestors. The Supreme Court of Ukraine overturned the election results citing fraud, and ordered a second runoff. Supporters of Yanukovych (bordering Russia) threatened to secede if Yanukovych didn't remain in office. Viktor Yanukovych lost by 8 points to Viktor Yuschenko.

6 Years Later:
Yanukovych won the 2010 election, with Yuschenko receiving ~5% of the vote. Yuschenko was the pick of the West and advocated for Ukraine to join Nato and the E.U. He became increasingly unpopular and had trouble working with Parliament to fix an emerging fuel crisis.

Three years into Yanukovych's presidency, protests ensued over his decision to scrap Ukraine's admission into the E.U. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered monetary support, including a 33% reduction in Russian natural gas prices and a purchase of $15 Billion of Ukrainian bonds.  President Yanukovych banned amplifiers and the installation of stages in an alleged attempt to weaken the protests.

Not long after, a clash between police and protestors resulted in the deaths of 20 Ukrainians, with hundreds injured. The Parliament impeached Yanukovych, citing heavy crackdowns on protests. Yanukovych fled the capital and described the situation as a "coup d'etat." The situation became known as the "Revolution of Dignity."

Yanukovych was charged with mass murder by the incoming administration and sought refuge in Russia.

Ukraine did not join the E.U. but did join the D.C.F.T.A., which guarantees the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people between the E.U. and nations closer to Russia: Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia.

Following the Revolution of Dignity, pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists staged an uprising in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, commonly referred to as the Donbas region. The separatists fought steadily against the Ukrainian armed forces. Russia decided to back the separatist war by sending aid to the pro-Russian faction. The battle continued until the so-called Luhansk People's Republic, Donetsk People's Republic, Ukraine, and Russia sealed a peace agreement. Ukraine warranted a small portion of the Donbas to be occupied by Russia and pro-Russian separatists. The war killed ~40,000 pro-Russian separatists.

The Revolution of Dignity also sparked Putin's deployment of troops to the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine. Crimea held a referendum vote, and 97% of Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

President Obama told the Russians that the U.S. would never recognize Crimea as Russian territory. By the time the Crimean conflict ended, ~10,000 had died.

In the same year, Luhansk and Donetsk, commonly referred to as the Donbas region, staged a pro-Russian uprising and clashed with Ukrainian government forces.

In 2016, Ukrainian President Poroshenko came under fire when the Panama papers detailed the President secretly moving assets he pledged to sell into offshore accounts. The Ukrainian people were once again upset with the dishonesty of their public officials.

In 2017, Stepan Bandera, the Ukrainian nationalist who fought alongside Nazis, was honored on his birthday. Protestors marched in the streets yelling "Jews Out" while carrying tiki torches and pictures of Bandera. Russian State media reported the total number of protestors to be ~6,500.

A few months later, the leader of the Svoboda party or the "Freedom Party" called on Jews to "get used to our rules" or be punished. He continued to blame Jews for the famine in the 1930s. Since Ukraine is a volatile country, several different political factions hold relevance in the elections.

   In 2019, a Ukrainian comedian revved up his campaign for President. Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky starred in the series "Servant of the People," which is available on Netflix. The series describes a student recording a teacher's corruption rant, which goes viral, and the teacher is elected President.

Blurring the lines between fact and fiction, Zelensky campaigned hard to end Ukraine's corruption. Zelensky's message resonated with voters that have dealt with deception for as long as they can remember. Zelensky ran under the new political party, "Servant of the People," and successfully defeated Poroshenko. Upon Poroshenko's departure, he officially mandated the Ukrainian language for public servants such as doctors and teachers. Roughly one-third of the nation speaks Russian as their first language. Russia described the move as discriminatory. 

 While President, Zelensky advocated for admission into NATO. NATO is a formal alliance between 30 nations in the North-Atlantic region. If an attack occurs on a NATO member, all other NATO members are obliged to defend the member. NATO has dismissed Ukraine's admission but encouraged possible future access.

In 2021, Zelensky's party held the majority of Parliament. The top opposition leader, Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russia member of Ukraine's Parliament, was placed under house arrest after being charged with treason. Medvechuk escaped house arrest, called the charge politically motivated, and sought refuge in Russia.

It is worth mentioning that Medvedchuk represented constituency 105 democratically in Luhansk. The vast majority of pro-Russian Ukrainians exist within and near the Donbas.

 During the 2022 Olympics, Russia massed troops on the Russo-Ukrainian border. U.S. intelligence claims that Russia has been planning an attack for several months.

On February 24th, 2022, Russia launched an offensive on Eastern Ukraine, what Russia calls "a special military operation" to liberate the people of the pro-Russian Donbas from totalitarian neo-Nazis. This contradicts the western narrative that Putin is actively rebuilding the Soviet Union and prepared to take all of Ukraine and possibly the Baltic States. As a reaction to Putin's neo-Nazi comments, the media and western governments condemned his remarks, labeling them "Russian disinformation."

Neo-nazis
Among the Ukrainian military is the Azov Battalion, an official military regiment that Stanford University describes as promoting neo-Nazi ideology. The Azov Battalion aligns with the Svoboda party, which agrees with Jewish President Zelensky on the issue of national autonomy. The group's emblem contains two distinct historical symbols: The Wolfsangel and a (rising) sonnerad or "Black Sun," symbols adopted by Hitler's S.S.   

Outbreak of War Within days of Putin's invasion, Russia was in a full-fledged battle with Ukrainian troops. Throughout the war, Putin has demanded that Ukraine recognize the pro-Russian separatist regions of the Donbas as an independent. Zelensky has repeatedly denied Putin's demands. As a result of Zelensky's determination to retain the Donbas, Putin decided to move troops towards the heart of Ukraine: Kyiv. Putin has grown increasingly frustrated over Ukraine's refusal to give up the Donbas and has hired Syrian mercenaries.

The United States responded to the invasion by placing an embargo on Russian oil. Russian oil has long powered "green" countries such as Germany, which are reluctant to produce their own energy citing climate change. At a NATO meeting in 2018, then-President Trump criticized Germany's dependence on Russian energy. Germany was strengthening Russia and jeopardizing Western influence over Europe. The problem with the Biden Administration's logic is that banning Russian oil will not hurt Putin at all. Putin has the power of a monarch and lives in a Billion-dollar palace. Hopes of destabilizing Russia by anchoring the Russian citizens further into poverty will have no impact on Putin or his power. Putin does not care about his approval rating since he can poison and imprison his political opponents. If the Russian people were going to destabilize the regime, it would be because Putin deployed their families to die in Ukraine, not because the U.S. is banning Russian oil. Biden's thinking is extremely surface-level. He can not anticipate Russia selling its oil to China, which would unite our two most potent adversaries. As anticipated, Biden's ban on Russian oil has led to dramatic increases in gas prices for the American people. Furthermore, Biden's solution to filling in the energy void is to buy oil from Venezuela. Biden would rather fund Maduro's regime than Putin's regime. This is like an alcoholic substituting whiskey for rum.

The best way to increase innovation and decrease suffering across the globe is to bring down energy prices. Declining energy prices will reduce the price of distribution, which decreases the price of goods, which lowers the cost of living, which increases the amount of money people have to assist poverty-stricken nations, start their businesses, and propel the globe into the future. Biden disagrees with this statement. Instead, he fears human contribution to climate change and aims to reach zero carbon emissions from electricity by 2035.

Zelensky has made personal appearances across the globe since the outbreak. In his address to Congress on March 16th, 2022, Zelensky called on the United States to "close the sky" over Ukraine. Ukraine is desperate and is craving American support. Instituting a no-fly zone would force American troops to shoot down Russian aircraft, likely igniting World War III. After Zelensky's address, President Biden allocated $800M of military support to Ukraine, including guided missiles.

Western Spin Whether it's mainstream pundits or "National Security Experts," media outlets throughout the West are either lying about the Ukraine situation or have not researched the topic in-depth and taken the State Department's word. Typical statements include, "Ukraine pushes democratic values, which threatens Putin's power,"; "Putin is taking Ukraine for wealth,"; "Putin is rebuilding the Soviet Union." To reach the truth, there must be rational discourse from all angles. Free speech is essential to a thriving democracy. For example, Google has been banning Russian State media for 'disinformation,' but if it truly is unbacked irrational falsehoods, why not open up the Russian rhetoric to the West so it can be rejected at the individual level in the marketplace of ideas? Why do major media outlets fear debating their opposition on this topic? If you have a better argument, it would be counterproductive to censor your opposition because two distinct opinions will draw a binary choice, and the rational majority will follow logic.

 Why do we need Ukraine?
The State Department is now pushing U.S. PR. The United States government is lying to stir up emotion so Americans will back their tough-on-Russia stance. The propaganda campaign is a deliberate lie to the American people, which contradicts the founding principle that the majority is rational. The U.S. government has a moral obligation to tell the citizens why we need Ukraine: military influence.

Takeaways:
-Putin does not want Kyiv or any Ukrainian territory outside of the Donbas.
-Putin invaded eastern Ukraine to occupy regions that overwhelmingly support Russia over Ukraine.
-Neo-nazis are prevalent in Ukraine, notably the Svoboda party.
-Putin is not losing this war.
-This war will not result in all of Ukraine being absorbed into Russia.
-The West will likely declare victory after a peace agreement is inevitably reached and Putin obtains the Donbas.
-Ukraine is a military asset to the West; if a conflict with Russia escalated, Ukraine would allow the United States on Russia's doorstep.
-Ukraine is not a democracy; Zelensky bans his political opposition.
-This conflict will not escalate into WWIII.

Questions to ask:
-Will funding Ukraine's military result in more casualties and prolong the inevitable Russian occupation of the Donbas?
-What should America's role be in assisting Ukraine?
-Is Zelensky a hero of Western values?