Map created using 270towin.com

2020 Census Provides Republicans with the Upper Hand

Although the census is not on the minds of everyday Americans, the new electoral map completely changes the game. The 2020 Census results will provide Republicans with an advantage heading into the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election.

The census shows a fall in growth from 2010 to 2020 for many Democrat strongholds such as New York, California, and Illinois. Some swing states Biden benefitted from in the 2020 election saw a decline in growth as well. As for Republicans, states like Montana, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina gained electoral votes and congressional districts. Republicans fell short in states like West Virginia and Ohio, but the census results benefit Republicans overall.

In 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden flipped five states and one congressional district Trump carried in 2016. The key states included Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nebraska's second congressional district (1).

In a nation of nearly 330M people, President Trump could have changed the course of history if he had been able to garner just 42,921 votes in the states of Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. If this unprecedented election were to occur, neither candidate would be able to claim victory, sending the election to the 2021 House of Representatives. Although Democrats controlled the House, this scenario would likely play out well for former President Trump. Under this scenario, each state delegation would receive one vote, giving states like Rhode Island as much influence as California. A candidate would have to win the majority of Congressmembers from a state to win that state's vote. Presumably, if a state has more Republican members of Congress than Democrats, the state would vote in favor of the Republican candidate. States like Michigan, with 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans, would not participate unless a member refused to vote or crossed party lines. 

On the other hand, the Senate would decide the Vice President. Since the Senate had a 50-50 balance following the election, Former Vice President Pence would have cast the deciding vote. Heading into the  2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election, the chances of this occurring are very slim.

Under the new electoral landscape, if Trump can retain key swing states such as Florida and North Carolina and win back Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, he will be heading to the White House in January of 2025. These key states now provide the easiest pathway to the presidency.